SOURCE: National Weather Service
...Tropical Storm Warnings for Portions of South Texas...
...Coastal Flood Warning in Effect...
...High Risk of Rip Currents...
What’s New?
- Tropical Storm Warning in effect Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas
- Tropical storm conditions expected late tonight through Tuesday.
- Increasing threat of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
- Moderate coastal flooding expected with Dune Erosion Possible
Forecast: An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen today into a tropical depression as it moves westward. The low-pressure area has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this system this afternoon to determine if a tropical depression has formed. This system is expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall on the south Texas coast on Tuesday morning. There is still some uncertainty on exactly where the center will cross the coast. The main hazards from this system will be the potential for much needed rainfall. Generally, the heaviest rains fall on the right side of the storm with respect to its forward motion. Expect very wet and stormy conditions during the morning commute on Tuesday. Overall soil conditions are dry and can absorb a lot of water. Thus, only isolated flash flooding is expected and primarily in urban areas or typical low spots. Outer rain bands, containing tropical storm force wind gusts, are expected to reach the Middle Texas coastal waters this evening and spread across the coastal region tonight. This system is expected to weaken as it tracks westward across south Texas toward the Rio Grande on Tuesday, but gusts of 40-60 mph will be possible which could cause some minor damage.
Along area beaches, storm surge is expected to produce Moderate coastal flooding on Tuesday with the potential for water to reach the dunes and beach access roads. Dune erosion will be possible. There is also a high risk for rip currents as large swells reach the Texas coast. A 1-3 foot storm surge could also sweep across Baffin Bay on Tuesday. However, lesser impacts are expected in Nueces, Copano and San Antonio Bays.
Isolated tornadoes could occur within the rain bands from early Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Be alert as any isolated tornadoes will likely move quickly westward around the northern outskirts of the storm.
Winds: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area Tuesday with wind of 39 mph and gusts to 60 mph possible.
Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding: Storm surge of 1-3 feet of beach inundation is expected on Tuesday.
Rainfall: 3-5 inches of rain is expected with isolated amounts to 7 inches possible.
Tornadoes: Rainband moving inland may briefly spin up tornadoes.
Forecaster Considerations Although the system is still not defined as a depression, the system is moving over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and thus strengthening is expected. However, given its fast forward speed, there will not be enough time for it to get any stronger than a minimal tropical storm. In fact, most of the model guidance keeps this system as a depression or weak tropical storm. Once it makes landfall it will continue moving quickly across South Texas reaching the Rio Grande by late in the day. Bands of heavy rain could still remain in the wake of the system, but overall conditions should begin to improve Tuesday night with conditions back to normal by Wednesday.