- Invest 91 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico now has a HIGH (70%) chance of tropical cyclone development before moving onshore across the western Gulf of Mexico coastline Tuesday.
- The Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has expanded to include La Salle, McMullen and southern Live Oak Counties.
Forecast: A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form as it approaches the South Texas or northeast Mexico coastline by late Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical Storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas Coastline. This system will likely bring much needed rainfall to South Texas along with an increased risk of rip currents along the Texas coast early to mid week. There is also a marginal risk for isolated tornadoes over South TX on Tuesday and a marginal to slight risk for Excessive rainfall. High confidence that whatever does develop will move quickly enough not to bring prolonged, excessive rainfall to south Texas. Lastly, a fire weather threat will increase on the periphery of the storm where no rainfall occurs but winds increase.
South Texas Impacts:
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday
Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with isolated totals of 5 inches or more possible, resulting in potential for isolated flash flooding.
Coastal: Increased risk of rip currents along Gulf facing beaches.
Marine: Increasing swells Monday Night through Tuesday Night, with wave heights 8-12 feet, in the coastal waters.
Residents should continue to monitor the forecast and stay alert to any changes.